Transforming Health Care Through Evidence and Collaboration
Transforming Health Care Through Evidence and Collaboration

As part of the work to investigate ways to identify primary care patients who are at high risk, this analysis explored the predictive power of asking physicians whether they would be surprised if the patient died in the next 12 months. Though this question in isolation failed to identify the majority of patients who subsequently died in that time frame, physician predictions were more strongly associated with 1-year mortality than other known correlates such as patient age and comorbidities, suggesting that incorporating this physician judgement into more advanced predictive algorithms may be a fruitful direction for future research.